Matchday 1 of the 2025-26 Champions League saw 67 goals scored across the games. The Athletic utilizes its projections, powered by Opta data, to forecast each club's probability of league-phase elimination, direct qualification to the last 16, entry into the play-off round, and winning the final in Budapest. After Matchday 1, Liverpool is projected as the early favorite with a 20% chance of winning the tournament, followed by Arsenal at 17%. These projections have seen movement following the initial games. Key results and their impact on projections include: * Juventus and Borussia Dortmund drew 4-4; projections for both remained stable, with a 63% chance of making the play-off round. * Liverpool's win against Atletico Madrid increased their direct qualification chances from 77% to 84%. * Arsenal's 2-0 victory over Athletic Club gave them an 86% chance of reaching the last 16, partly due to having the third-easiest schedule. * Barcelona's 2-1 away win against Newcastle United improved their projected points to 17 (from 15) and direct qualification chances to 71% (from 56%). * Paris Saint-Germain's 4-0 win against Atalanta increased their title retention chances to 12% (from 11%). * Bayern Munich's 3-1 win over Chelsea reduced their league-phase elimination chances from 11% to 3% and boosted their top-eight finish odds from 35% to 50%. Bayern faces the hardest fixture list. * Manchester City's 2-0 win over Napoli reduced their odds of finishing outside the top 24 to 1% and gave them a 70% chance of direct qualification. * Real Madrid's 2-1 win against Marseille decreased their league-phase elimination chances from 6% to 2% and raised their top-eight finish probability from 48% to 57%. * Inter's 2-0 win against Ajax gives them a 3% chance of lifting the trophy and a 42% chance of a top-eight finish. * Union Saint-Gilloise's (USG) surprise 3-1 win at PSV propelled them from 24th to 13th in projections, with a 62% chance of making the play-off round. * Ajax is now ranked second-last with a 71% chance of league-phase elimination, despite having the sixth-easiest schedule. * PSV dropped from 22nd to 32nd in projections, with their projected points falling from 10 to 7, and they face the third-hardest schedule. * Qarabag beat Benfica 3-2 away, moving from 35th to 29th in projections, with a 41% play-off chance. * Benfica dropped from 13th to 23rd after their defeat, with projected points falling from 12 to 9. Coach Bruno Lage was sacked, and Jose Mourinho returned to the club. * Chelsea's win chance dropped from 7% to 5% after their defeat to Bayern, and their top-eight finish odds fell from 51% to 37%. * Tottenham and Newcastle have greater chances of needing play-offs than direct qualification, though they are capable of causing difficulties for opponents. * Atletico Madrid has a 10% chance of a top-eight finish and a 31% probability of league-phase elimination. * Napoli, despite a 2-0 loss to Manchester City, maintains a projected final points tally of 12 and a 17% chance of finishing in the top eight.